New study predicts who’s going to win the Oscars this year.
Every year, FiveThirtyEight analyzes nominations and wins for awards “that historically predict the Oscars.” As of this week, they have finalized their predictions, and they believe, among other things, that Leonardo DiCaprio will finally win an Academy Award.
In order to figure out who is going to win an Oscar, the website uses the following model:
“The model relies on the idea that the best looks into the minds of Oscar voters are the guild and press prizes that precede the Academy Awards…Oscar nominees get points for being nominated or winning other awards that historically predict the Oscars. The better a historical predictor a given award is, the more points it’s worth.”
Here are the final picks for the top categories.
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, “most likely the latter.”
Best Supporting Actor: Walt Hickey says, “my model says [Sylvester] Stallone, my brain says [Mark] Rylance, but my heart says [Mark] Ruffalo.”
Best Actress: Brie Larson, however he does say that “it would be shocking” if she did not win.
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Best Picture: The Revenant
